Flash Report: 2Q2019 LCFS Data Show Slowing Drawdown of Credit Bank

November 1, 2019

On October 31st, CARB posted the second quarter of 2019 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which is scheduled to be published on November 14th.

The second quarter data show credits growing more than deficits such that the draw on the credit bank was 200,000 MT less than in the first quarter of 2019 and 233,000 MT less than the second quarter of 2018. The 2Q2019 results seem to indicate a slowing trend in the draw-down of the credit bank over the past three quarters, and if the trends recorded for the first half of 2019 are matched for the last half of the year, the total bank draw will be 1.4 million MT for the year, resulting in a year-end net credit bank of 6.4 million MT.

The table below summarizes the second quarter and compares year-to-year and quarter-to-quarter data.

2Q2019

A quick look at this data shows that the increases in credits were driven by several fuels: renewable natural gas, off-road electricity, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel. Additionally, renewable naphtha, alternative jet fuel and propane have begun to contribute as credit-generating fuels, and credits from projects are increasing due to Innovative Crude and ZEV Infrastructure Credits.

We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, published on November 14, 2019. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe! Your first two weeks are free, so subscribe today to receive this Quarterly Analysis in your trial period.